Smart investing: pay attention to what is happening, not just to what is being said.

People often ask me how and where they can invest wisely. One of the most important pieces of advice I always give is to conduct at least a fundamental (trend) analysis. In doing so, pay particular attention to the actions and actual decisions made at the highest level. Do not blindly believe everything you see or hear on (inter)national channels. Go beyond what is being said, and do your homework thoroughly. Public statements often conceal complex interests and structures that only become visible when you look at behavior and facts. Below is some more information to further clarify this.
Turkey and Israel: harsh words, but growing trade
For example, the relationship between Turkey and Israel has seemed tense for months at first glance. The rhetoric is sharp, and political leaders regularly criticize each other. Yet, the trade figures tell a different story. In 2023, Turkey exported billions of dollars’ worth of steel, food products, and machinery to Israel. According to UN trade data, Turkey was still among the largest exporters to Israel in 2024, with an export value of $2.86 billion. “Turkey was Israel’s fifth-largest supplier in 2024, with exports totaling $2.86 billion, according to the United Nations International Trade Statistics Database” (Turkish Minute, 2025).
When it comes to oil, Turkey officially claims not to sell to Israel, but the majority of Israeli oil arrives via Turkish pipelines. All of this shows that diplomatic tensions do not always lead to a break in economic cooperation. In fact, trade between the two countries continues to grow quietly, despite the harsh words.
Another interesting case: aid to Afghanistan and the Taliban
Another situation that shows how words and actions can differ is international aid to Afghanistan. Since the change of power, countries and NGOs have continued to provide humanitarian aid to the population despite the changed political situation. According to reports, the Taliban receive tens of millions of dollars weekly through official channels. This money is intended for aid, but it also creates a dependency on those in power. In addition, the Taliban generate significant income through local mining, taxes, and agriculture. Such situations illustrate how complex the playing field is when ideology, emergency aid, and administrative reality come together.
We also see a double dynamic with Russia
Incidentally, we also see an interesting interplay between politics and practice in Russia. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the European Union imposed heavy sanctions on Russia. At the same time, the EU’s dependence on Russian gas and oil remained significant. In 2023, the EU still imported 27 billion cubic meters of natural gas via Russian pipelines, and in 2024, this even increased to 31 billion cubic meters. Although this is a significant decrease compared to 2021, when imports were still 63 billion cubic meters, it shows that imports have not stopped completely (Statista, 2024). In addition, EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in 2024 still amounted to €21.9 billion. This amount is only 6% lower than the previous year, while the volume decreased by just 1% (Energy and Clean Air, 2024).
Some countries even saw their trade volumes with Russia increase in certain sectors. These developments show that political statements and economic reality do not always align. Policy often seems to point in one direction, but in practice, it can be difficult to fully follow that course without consequences for the economy.
What does the above mean for investors?
For investors, it is important not to rely solely on public statements or news reports. Political language is sometimes used as part of a diplomatic strategy to achieve certain goals. That is why it is essential to dig deeper and discover the underlying patterns by studying trade flows, contracts, investment decisions, and the routes of raw materials and goods. These facts provide a much clearer picture of the real relationships between countries and companies.
Furthermore, it is crucial to think long-term and follow trends instead of being guided by temporary political tensions or current media attention. Sometimes it seems as if relationships are under pressure, while economic cooperation is actually growing. By understanding where the interests lie and how they are developing, risks can be better assessed and opportunities better seized.
So, invest enough time in analyzing reliable sources, official trade data, and independent reports. Be critical and always seek confirmation of information from multiple perspectives. With this approach, you develop a nuanced and realistic view of the world. This is indispensable for making strategic, conscious, and future-oriented investment decisions in a complex and constantly changing world.
What applies at the global level also applies at the meso and micro level.
The same approach, focusing on actions rather than words, is not only relevant at the geopolitical level but also at the meso and micro level. Whether you are researching a multinational, a scale-up, a local business, or even an individual within an organization, it is crucial to always look at behavior, decision-making, and tangible actions. Beautiful words can create a powerful narrative, but it is the choices made behind the scenes that tell the real story.
For example, suppose you are following a company you are considering investing in. The CEO appears in interviews confidently stating that the company is ready for growth and emphasizing innovation, sustainability, and a long-term vision. That sounds promising. But if you then see that the same CEO is selling large amounts of his own company shares on the stock market in a short period, that is often a warning sign. It may indicate a loss of confidence or inside information about upcoming setbacks. Smart investors see this as an early signal that the market may be about to correct itself.
A practical tip is to follow so-called insider trading reports, where you can see which executives are buying or selling shares. Another example is analyzing annual reports and paying attention to investments in R&D, staff turnover, reorganizations, or the phasing out of strategic partnerships. Are the management’s words in line with these actions? If not, be critical.
Even if you work within an organization yourself, for example as a team leader or consultant, this way of looking helps you stay sharp. Are big plans announced in meetings but in reality no budget is allocated or key figures are leaving? Those are signals that you should approach the plan with caution.
Another tip is to pay attention to what is not being said. If a company suddenly stops reporting on certain goals or themes that were previously central, this may indicate a strategic shift or internal problems. It is also valuable to analyze behavioral patterns over time: are decisions being postponed, does the frequency of communication change, are responsibilities constantly shifting?
In short, whether it concerns international trade, national politics, business strategies, or individual decisions within organizations, it helps to consistently look at what people actually do instead of what they say. This way, you remain realistic, can spot risks early, and better anticipate possible changes. Those who recognize behavioral signals also see more quickly where opportunities and threats are quietly developing.
Why other indicators are also crucial for good insight
Taking only geopolitics into account is often not enough. It is also important to include other indicators, such as trends in monetary policy, movements at central banks, fluctuations in currency markets, commodity prices, transport data, technological breakthroughs, and changing consumer behavior. These signals are often visible in data before they appear in news reports.
For example, if central banks worldwide simultaneously raise interest rates and at the same time geopolitical tensions rise in resource-rich regions, that is a clear sign that economic pressure is increasing. Or when international logistics networks falter but official statements pay little attention to this, it may still indicate larger structural problems or tensions behind the scenes.
By analyzing geopolitical developments and broader system indicators in conjunction, you develop a much more realistic picture of how the world actually moves. It helps you look beyond the issues of the day, to think not only reactively but also strategically, and to position yourself or your organization more resiliently in a complex world.
Long-term focus matters in investing: look at actual value, not noise
When it comes to investing, I want to emphasize again that it is crucial not to get carried away by current events or emotional spikes in the news. The focus should always be on the long term: what is the actual value a company can deliver in the next five to ten years? Don’t just think about profit or revenue growth but especially about the problem the company solves. Is that problem fundamental and lasting or temporary and cyclical? Has the company built a clear specialization in this area and is that also visible in their strategy, products, and external communication? It is also important to see whether the company is responding to major structural trends, such as digitalization, climate adaptation, the circular economy, or an aging population. Is the company able to adapt to these developments or does it risk being overtaken? Does it have scalable technology, strong partners, or access to strategic markets? By considering these factors, you avoid investing based on hype or sentiment and build a portfolio that is future-proof.
Geopolitical tensions, wars, or economic uncertainties often also cause temporary shocks in the market. These sometimes lead to sharp drops in share prices or disruptions in production chains. But what you need to remember is that these fluctuations are usually short-lived. Many sectors recover as soon as the situation stabilizes and the underlying economic demand often remains. It is therefore important to look beyond the moment and focus on the structural strength of a sector or company.
Another tip is to carefully consider the role of the country in which a company operates during your analysis. Are they operating in a country rich in oil, gas, or rare minerals? Then there is a good chance that temporary interruptions, for example due to conflicts or sanctions, will be quickly resolved. This is because such countries are economically highly dependent on the export of these resources and therefore have a vested interest in resuming production quickly. As a result, the long-term risk is often smaller than it initially appears.
Incidentally, we also see in other sectors, such as technology or infrastructure, that companies with a strong position and clear vision are often relatively insensitive to short-term fluctuations. They continue to build even when markets are temporarily unfavorable.
That is why my advice remains: focus on the big picture, analyze in depth, look at actions rather than just words, and always assess an investment in light of future value creation. This increases your chances of sustainable profit and minimizes the risk of hasty decisions.
Awareness and care with information
For clarity, with this blog I do not mean to say that everything said on national or international television is incorrect. However, it is important to be aware of the complexity behind public statements and not to make hasty decisions without thorough research. Therefore, always gather different perspectives and reliable information before making a decision. As mentioned earlier, also invest sufficient time in analyzing reliable sources, official trade data, and independent reports. Be critical and always seek confirmation of information from multiple angles. With this approach, you develop a nuanced and realistic view of the world. This is indispensable for making strategic, conscious, and future-oriented investment decisions in a complex and constantly changing world.
More blogs to follow
More relevant blogs will be published soon in which I will address topics that are especially important right now. For example, what should you pay attention to if you want to invest and what are, in my opinion, sensible steps to secure your assets from 2026 onwards? I will provide several concrete points of attention and practical insights that can help you make smart choices in a changing world.
Would you like to read more? Then also check out this blog in which I explain how you can predict future developments with a higher degree of accuracy, something that is becoming increasingly important for those who want to think ahead. Click here to go directly to this blog.
Sources
- Turkish Minute. (2025, May 23). Turkey was the 5th largest exporter to Israel in 2024 despite trade ban, UN data. https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/23/turkey-was-the-5th-largest-exporter-to-israel-in-2024-despite-trade-ban-un-data/
- Statista. (2024). Russian pipeline natural gas annual imports to the European Union. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1384422/russian-pipeline-natural-gas-annual-imports-to-the-european-union/
- Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. (2024). EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in third year of invasion surpass financial aid sent to Ukraine. https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine/